statistics
statistics probability mathematics are only tools for decision making. they are imperfect but we have no alternative.
i collect data required for making decision on my daily living based on this collection. I have my sugar chart where i write down my sugar reading insulin diet exercise sleep stool urine weight and my well being perception relative to absent me: complexion pain wounds taste sensitivity sensation dizziness burning palm feet palpitation suffocation tiredness ... whatever. i make decisions based on my chart regarding my diet insulin drinks activities sleep work plan reading writing etc. Logs are kept morning and evening - twice daily.
it is necessary to find out road worthiness of me. there may be lot of organ failures and i do not know; but certainly i have high blood sugar and associated body symptoms - burning palm feet and inability to digest rice potato milk butter ghee and cereal. they were my staple diet till recently. other symptoms - Pressure surrounding my eye. low energy. low appetite. i must decrease my discomforts not sensing any. It is my normal.
i must not be resorting to philosophy or blaming any. I must be absent and not writing or making appearance.
logs of me is my presence as seen by me while i must be absent and witnessing my absence.
statistics is better tool than probability though entirely heuristic but reliable without making any presumption of any mathematical nature like distribution or density function or parametric.
we have seen two 737 of max 8 variety disappear with more than 100 passengers each in last 5 months. we have doubts about their airworthiness. the logs of theirs and all others - idle under repair non passenger whatever kind, may be compared and studied for last couple of years; we must find out whatever similarity if there is. it is data analysis. What components really failed in the aircrafts. when multiple components failures what was the root cause if any.
unless this is found out. it is right to ground all of them - 737 max 8. it is wrong if that is done by US airlines. we must determine the cause. unless the causes are external such as bird turbulence speed height fuel human negligence. Internal failures are of what kind - battery power short circuit ignition wing body tail structure fuel injection supply vibration .. whatever noticeable.
we use probability to this extent only. If there are 1000 aircraft of this variety are in operation every day what is the probability for failure for one if operated today while on flight and not noticed.
I bought my first computer in 1992 having the realization that i must be incorporated and hunting for assignment and computer is essential for me to become productive. It was about INR 30K i had to invest. it was my personal savings. It was about 3 times of monthly earning.
this computer i modified or repaired but it lasted me for five years till i upgraded the same. and it was very essential for me even when i had employer. i was productive and independent. i did not carry any agreement with my employer that i cannot work outside independently. Products developed by me belonged to me and did not belonged to any of my employer.
i got a laptop in 2000 for first time courtesy gopi. that lasted me for 5 years and i had to get newer and faster computers. i also possessed a desktop home made. soham has one now. individually all my family members has one laptop. laptops need replacement every two years.
these laptops have one motherboard and some pluggable components like memory disk usb ethernet. desktops i do not use. soham's desktop needs attending to every six months power supply graphics memory hard disk wifi mouse keyboard monitor needing replacement.
we need to find out two statistics based on all the produced 737 max 8 so far; what is the average life time and what is the major component failure that unless replaced the aircraft is not operational; average life time of this components; if there is built in recognition of failure and redundancy to survive on flight for at least 6 hours.
Until then 737 Max 8 is not airworthy. it is not political.
i collect data required for making decision on my daily living based on this collection. I have my sugar chart where i write down my sugar reading insulin diet exercise sleep stool urine weight and my well being perception relative to absent me: complexion pain wounds taste sensitivity sensation dizziness burning palm feet palpitation suffocation tiredness ... whatever. i make decisions based on my chart regarding my diet insulin drinks activities sleep work plan reading writing etc. Logs are kept morning and evening - twice daily.
it is necessary to find out road worthiness of me. there may be lot of organ failures and i do not know; but certainly i have high blood sugar and associated body symptoms - burning palm feet and inability to digest rice potato milk butter ghee and cereal. they were my staple diet till recently. other symptoms - Pressure surrounding my eye. low energy. low appetite. i must decrease my discomforts not sensing any. It is my normal.
i must not be resorting to philosophy or blaming any. I must be absent and not writing or making appearance.
logs of me is my presence as seen by me while i must be absent and witnessing my absence.
statistics is better tool than probability though entirely heuristic but reliable without making any presumption of any mathematical nature like distribution or density function or parametric.
we have seen two 737 of max 8 variety disappear with more than 100 passengers each in last 5 months. we have doubts about their airworthiness. the logs of theirs and all others - idle under repair non passenger whatever kind, may be compared and studied for last couple of years; we must find out whatever similarity if there is. it is data analysis. What components really failed in the aircrafts. when multiple components failures what was the root cause if any.
unless this is found out. it is right to ground all of them - 737 max 8. it is wrong if that is done by US airlines. we must determine the cause. unless the causes are external such as bird turbulence speed height fuel human negligence. Internal failures are of what kind - battery power short circuit ignition wing body tail structure fuel injection supply vibration .. whatever noticeable.
we use probability to this extent only. If there are 1000 aircraft of this variety are in operation every day what is the probability for failure for one if operated today while on flight and not noticed.
I bought my first computer in 1992 having the realization that i must be incorporated and hunting for assignment and computer is essential for me to become productive. It was about INR 30K i had to invest. it was my personal savings. It was about 3 times of monthly earning.
this computer i modified or repaired but it lasted me for five years till i upgraded the same. and it was very essential for me even when i had employer. i was productive and independent. i did not carry any agreement with my employer that i cannot work outside independently. Products developed by me belonged to me and did not belonged to any of my employer.
i got a laptop in 2000 for first time courtesy gopi. that lasted me for 5 years and i had to get newer and faster computers. i also possessed a desktop home made. soham has one now. individually all my family members has one laptop. laptops need replacement every two years.
these laptops have one motherboard and some pluggable components like memory disk usb ethernet. desktops i do not use. soham's desktop needs attending to every six months power supply graphics memory hard disk wifi mouse keyboard monitor needing replacement.
we need to find out two statistics based on all the produced 737 max 8 so far; what is the average life time and what is the major component failure that unless replaced the aircraft is not operational; average life time of this components; if there is built in recognition of failure and redundancy to survive on flight for at least 6 hours.
Until then 737 Max 8 is not airworthy. it is not political.
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